Winning Brackets is your specialized tool for creating your March Madness brackets! Your brackets
will
not only
be unique, but they will give you a winning edge over the rest of your group. Winning Brackets
runs a
full simulation
of the upcoming tournament and outputs a bracket for you that you can copy into any ESPN, Yahoo, or NCAA group site. Unlike other cookie-cutter
bracket "pros" which provide everyone the same picks, your individualized bracket will be distinctive
and can be customized for your individual preferences.
How does it work?
WinningBrackets uses a variety of inputs to calculate the odds for each game. Through careful analysis
and
after reviewing results over the last three decades, we have fine-tuned an algorithm which
caluclates the best odds. Running thousands of repetitions over years of research, these finely-tuned
parameters are
run through a simulation that will build your bracket. While no bracket is ever guaranteed success, our
bracket
generation tool consistently outperforms ESPN's largest "SportsCenter" group. Here's a visual comparison
of
Winning Brackets
against all users in the SportsCenter
group:
In 2023, 46.8% of our generated brackets were in the top 10% when compared to that
same
ESPN group.
In 2022, 30.1% of all brackets created were in the top 10% of all Brackets, and an amazing
57.4% were in the top 20%
The Science of Winning Brackets
We have carefully applied data science and analysis of all results since the tournament was expanded to
64
teams
in 1985, and have run tests against a variety of technical metrics. Through this process, we have
identified
these
key parameters to help us run a successful simulation:
- Team Experience and Success: Teams with experience and
demonstrated
success in different March Madness rounds typically have an advantage over teams with less
experience
and
success.
- Conference Experience and Success: Different conferences
prepare
teams differently. Teams in stronger conferences are typically pushed harder and perform better,
although we've
found that this typically holds true better in certain rounds than others.
- Team Ranking: The most common factor for people building
brackets,
teams that are ranked higher than other teams tend to outperform them in head-to-head matchups.
However,
through
careful analysis we've found that these advantages will vary as you get deeper into the tournament.
- Recent Results: We also look at how teams have recently
performed in
the tournament, and provide additional advantages or disadvantages.
When added together and carefully analyzed, these factors have led us to build a single,
amazingly accurate bracket generation algorithm that has run remarkably well over the last eleven
tournaments
(ESPN comparison for 2022 and 2023 against "SportsCenter" group):
Year |
Median Score (P50) |
% Correct Champion |
% Brackets in 4 digits (score >=1000) |
2023 |
580 (ESPN 450) |
20.0% (ESPN 4.2%) |
13.1% (ESPN 7.9%) |
2022 |
730 (ESPN 520) |
15.3% (ESPN 8.3%) |
18.4% (ESPN 2.9%) |
2021 |
490 |
4.1% |
3.4% |
2019 |
620 |
3.5% |
3.6% |
2018 |
590 |
19.4% |
15.8% |
2017 |
670 |
23.0% |
17.8% |
2016 |
730 |
4.9% |
8.7% |
2015 |
830 |
27.4% |
31.3% |
2014 |
590 |
9.1% |
11.1% |
2013 |
600 |
14.8% |
13.5% |
2012 |
680 |
18.1% |
19.7% |
What about all the different brackets out there?
Between celebrities and "bracketologists", there are many brackets out there that are available at your
fingertips. However,
there are two key main advantages to having a bracket built specifically for you using Winning
Brackets:
- People are limited by their bias: Anyone building a
bracket
will be
limited by their unconscious bias, especially anchoring (relying on the first piece of information
you
learn),
affinity, self-serving, and recall bias. In contrast, WinningBrackets using a carefully constructed
algorithm
using technical analysis and free from human error.
- Celebrities build only one bracket: Even if you happen to
pick
the
celebrity bracket that was successful, you can be assured that others are also using that same
celebrity
bracket. This is why having a unique bracket provides you with an edge.
Even some of the most well known experts have up and downs throughout the years in their brackets. In 2023,
none
of the
9 experts in CBS Sports picked Connecticut, and only one of the nine had a team in the Final Four. While
these senior analysts and bracketologists know more about the NCAA tournament than most anyone, the best
score
was only 630. For 2023, 630 was actually a good score, but you had only a one in nine chance of picking that
expert. In contrast, the
median score from WinningBrackets was 590.
Can I customize my bracket?
If you have an idea of teams you think have an advantage (or a disadvantage), WinningBrackets provides an
opportunity to customize your bracket.
Picking a Winner: If you have an idea of who you think will win the tournament (or maybe you just
always
pick your alma mater), you can pre-select the winner of your bracket.
Adding Advantages or Disadvantages: If you have been following NCAA basketball leading up to the
tournament, you might have some insights. You can leverage those insights to help influence your
bracket.
WinningBrackets will allow you to add an advantage or a disadvantage for up to four teams. You can use
one
of the
following:
- Advantage: This will increase a team's chances by 8% for
each
game.
You might consider using Advantage for a team that is playing incredibly well leading up to the
tournament, or
for a team that you think is sleeper or a "cinderella"
- Slight Advantage: This will increase a team's chances by
3%
for each
game. Slight advantage could be useful to give a smaller edge to a team playing harder for a
retiring
coach, or
perhaps a team that has a perceived home field advantage.
- Slight Disadvantage: This will decrease a team's chances
by 3%
for
each game. This may be useful for a team that is having recent struggles heading into the
tournament, or
a team
that you think is overrated.
- Disadvantage: This will decrease a team's chances by 8%
for
each
game. Add a disadvantage when a team loses a star player to an injury or a suspension.
You can even combine advantages or disadvantages together. Give a team two advantages to increase their game
odds by
16% for a super advantage. It's important to note that even with advantages or disadvantages, other factors
are
determining the odds for each match, so a team may or may not advance based solely on your
advantages/disadvantages.
Is my bracket a guaranteed winner?
WinningBrackets uses Technical Data analysis applied over the last 38 years to build competitive brackets.
As
with
any March Madness prediction tool or bracketologist, there are no guaranteed winners. The NCAA Tournament is
full of
surprises year after year. The odds of picking all 63 games correctly is one in
9.2 quintillion. As
you
see from
the
graphs above, our bracket prediction tool has outperformed the general public, but every year is full of
surprises.
With that said, WinningBrackets is so confident in our March Madness bracket generator, that we do offer the
following guarantee:
If you pre-order a bracket ahead of Selection Sunday and your bracket does not score
at
least
400 points, you will receive a free bracket the following year.
Follow the link to Build Your 2024 Bracket for more details and
to
pre-order.
What do I do once my bracket is built?
Once you build your college basketball tournament bracket, your bracket selections will be mailed to you,
and
you
can also follow the links for a Printable NCAA Bracket. Then, you simply copy your selections to ESPN, CBS
Sports,
Yahoo, or any site that has a March Madness Bracket Contest.